Época Tropical abaixo Normal Atlântico

A Alta pressão existente a S e/ou SE USA e com uma anomalia negativa da temperatura do mar,a Leste no Golfo do México, a ameaça ficará pelas Caraíbas e América Central e penso que a principal regiões afectadas serão talvez para Setembro a costa Leste dos USA será mais vulnerável face a um aumento da susceptibilidade de passagens de ciclones tropicais!

A diferença é notória e só em 2002 o padrão da SST é semelhante ao de 2006, onde ocorreram nesse ano 12 sistemas tropicais, 7 deles em Setembro

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...002/index.html

SST's


http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS....6.20.2006.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS....6.21.2005.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS....6.22.2004.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS....6.21.2003.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS....6.21.2002.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS....6.18.2001.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS....6.20.2000.gif

Obviamente que a época 2005 foi excepcional e tão cedo não vamos ter outra assim

The NCEP libertou esta informação em Maio http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...urricane.shtml

" For the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, the ACE index is expected to be in the range of 135%-205% of the median. The upper half of this range is above the 175% baseline that Goldenberg et al. (Science, 2001) use to define a hyperactive season. Based on this predicted ACE range and on the 80% probability of an above-normal season, we expect 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes [categories 3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale]. This predicted ACE range can be satisfied even if the numbers of named storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes fall outside their expected ranges.

The vast majority of named storms and hurricanes are expected to form during August-October over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is typical for above-normal seasons. These systems generally track westward toward the Caribbean Sea and/or United States as they strengthen. Historically, very active seasons have averaged 2-4 landfalling hurricanes in the continental United States and 2-3 hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea. However, it is currently not possible to confidently predict at these extended ranges the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes, and whether or not a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. "

A ver vamos se confirma, pelo menos para já os indices estão a descer!?